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Europe | OPEC - reserves discrepancies 1983 to 1991 | global production
Once peak oil has been confirmed for any given source trap, field, basin, or for that matter, the entire planet, the projected
downward trends in production pose numerous physical problems to the way in which the remaining percentage of oil is recovered. One of the most critical economic factors is the
requirement to increase crude oil imports, and this political element plays an indelible role in the ability to maintain a strong economy. Any ongoing reduction in energy self
sufficiency places considerable pressure on economic policy and financial budgets, forcing the hand of economics, and requiring new solutions to offset spiraling energy procurement
costs, budget and trade deficits, and general consumer and commodity cost increases, of which are subject to permanent increases within the realm of a post peak oil production economy.
Every percentage point of energy self sufficiency reduction can increase the average account deficit by hundreds of millions of dollars, depending on the actual size of the economy, its
energy requirements, and other socioeconomic circumstances. To safeguard economic growth and continuity, the necessity to increase crude oil import quota's will become the primary
political strategy to drive economic expansion and to satisfy primary energy demand growth, but as energy production continues its path of rapid and perpetual decline, these and many
other economic policies and strategies will be endured at incredible cost. However, to acknowledge global peak oil simply means that the lack of spare global production capacity makes it
impossible for any country to increase imports of crude oil and hence, the period of permanent economic decline begins.
A good example of post peak oil production decline.... Prior to peak oil, Australia had remained high on the list of energy self sufficient countries for some time, being approximately 80 % self sufficient in energy production, however, this status is set to decline to 40 % or lower by 2010. Since crude oil production peak in 2000, Australia has experienced a rapid downward trend in crude oil production over a relatively short period of time, and this fact being a prime example of the energy recovery dynamics experienced in a post peak oil energy recovery environment. These trends are also clearly indicative of the need to incorporate a wide range of economic policies and strategies in order to cope with the rapid decline in energy self sufficiency. New economic strategies in this case, largely consist of the need to increase imports of heavier crude oil to provide for the requirements of Diesel fuel, Tar, and Asphalt production, but also consist of numerous economic policy initiatives and strategic implementations. The following graphical representation demonstrates the downward trend in Australian crude oil production, since the period of peak oil production was confirmed in 2000....  Resources.... Australian production data for period 2000 - 2006 United States - Energy Information Administration - Department of Energy Since peak oil in 2000, Australian net crude oil imports have increased from over 54,000 b/d, to more than 249,000 b/d, with import dependency expected to rise above 78 % percent within a decade. The rapid downward trends in production and increased import requirement can only strengthen concerns for economic stability in the coming years.
There are several alternative energy options available to Australia, but in terms of diesel fuel requirement, the only logical and financially practical approach to solve Australia's increasing need for agricultural, mining, and transportation fuels, and to quell the associated rapidly accelerating dependency on foreign crude oil imports, is to dedicate vast area's of land for the production of vegetable oil crops such as Rapeseed or Canola, for the purpose of bio-diesel fuel oil production. Almost all plant oils can be used as alternative diesel fuels. In fact, the diesel engine principle was designed to use vegetable oil as a fuel, however, the scale of production required to replace Hydrocarbon based diesel fuel is simply not possible to achieve, but still remains a viable alternative solution to offset depletion, and is an initiative that could be readily achieved by the introduction of the following incentives. · Strategic selection and release of government land for the purpose · Introduction of oil production subsidy programs · Operations and production taxation incentives All of the above and more would encourage large scale farming of oil crops, however, if this initiative is not implemented immediately as being part of a multi-level strategy to offset depletion, the economic predictions are dire and project massive price increases of fuels, related products, general commodities, and all that is associated. Over the past decade or more, millions of people globally have taken up the challenge of moving away from Hydrocarbon based diesel fuels, and have converted to the vegetable oil alternative. To look for examples of the benefits currently being provided by the introduction of simple fuel intake conversion technologies in many European countries, we need look no further than Germany. Once the conversion kit costing around $1,800 Euro's is fitted to the vehicle, the owner can then fill the vehicle fuel tank with SVO or straight vegetable oil from the local food store, being considerably cheaper than Petrodiesel. The collection of waste vegetable oil's for use as alternative fuels in Australia is a necessary factor within the alternative fuel process, rather than opting for straight clean vegetable oil, as the cost of straight vegetable oil's purchased direct from supermarket shelves and other suppliers is far too prohibitive, compared with the much cheaper costs in European countries such as Germany. Waste vegetable oil collection overcomes the cost factor and completes the convenient fuel-energy transition. The prospect of having a cheaper alternative to Petrodiesel is only viable if the collection process is established on a reasonably large scale. This can be achieved by collecting waste vegetable oil from take away food outlets and restaurant's, where cooking oil's are used in abundance. Once the oil has been collected, it is cold filtered several times to remove carbon particles and general contamination, before being used as alternative diesel fuel. Large scale oil cropping in Australia would solve the problem of supplying a cheaper oil product to market, making it quite viable to combine the use of both straight and waste vegetable oil's, without having to rely on the dedicated waste oil collection and filtration process. If the collection of waste vegetable oil can be achieved for little or no cost, the alternative fuel produced from the filtration process is free, apart from the time taken to collect and clean it. Agricultural diversity.... The point to make in the case for large scale vegetable oil production incentives is a simple one based on fact. The diesel engine provides the necessary means to transport all existing global agricultural produce, manufactured goods, and general commodities. There is currently no alternative to the diesel engine, nor will there be in the coming decades when crude oil is no longer available. The conclusion we can readily draw from these facts alone offers only one positive direction toward agricultural diversification, and clearly suggests that there is absolutely no other choice in a future that will command the requirement of vegetable oil cropping on a global scale.
Country examples of post peak oil production decline, including a brief analysis. Information contained on this page is provided without warranty of any kind, and subject to change without notice.... When we compare the example of downward production trends for Australia to that of the United States, United Kingdom and Europe, particularly that of the dependency on North Sea oil production, the more recent commencement of Australian production decline is considered a small example compared with downward production trends of other countries and regions. The United States for example peaked in 1970, and is a classic case for dependency and primary energy procurement desperation. Brief peak production status by region and country.... · 1970 - United States (lower 48) · 1999 - United Kingdom · 2000 - Europe · 1955 - Austria · 2000 - Denmark · 1988 - France · 1966 - Germany · 1994 - Hungary · 2000 - Norway Resources.... Region and country peak production data Colin Campbell - Forecasting global oil supply 2000 - 2050 [pdf] As the above clearly demonstrates, all listed countries have peaked and in the case of several, peaked more than 3 decades ago, but this is only a brief example. In fact, of all production countries globally, more than 82 % percent have already peaked. Very few countries including several of the Middle East group, have yet to be confirmed beyond doubt as having peaked. This is clearly indicative of the grave situation we all face with respect to the continued ability to maintain supply to global demand.
Accurate reserves reporting is one of the most important factors when considering the life-cycle or potential of oil wells and fields. When considering the extent of primary energy dependency that humanity has developed over the past five or six decades, particularly one which frequently looks toward OPEC member countries for sufficient capacity to provide a constant supply of energy to satisfy an insatiable desire for economic growth, we also tend to wonder just how accurate many of these reserves reports really are, and what underlying strategies may exist behind many that are found to be inaccurate. Prominent geologists have been pondering this question since discovering major discrepancies in OPEC reserves reporting during the period 1983 to 1991, when it was discovered that OPEC member countries had increased their reserves by unrealistic percentages or more than 300 Gb - billion barrels. As the graph below indicates, several of the host member countries had almost doubled their reserves overnight, with the remainder also demonstrating rather large and disproportionate increases in their stated reserves. But these increases could not be confirmed or explained from known discoveries in associated regions, in fact very little oil was discovered during this period. The following graphical representation demonstrates OPEC reserves discrepancies during the period 1983 to 1991, reported by prominent geologists. 
The "Hubbert peak", basic laws and principles of crude oil recovery.... The most important aspect of crude oil production is the fundamental laws and principles of recovery made famous more than 50 years ago by the late Dr. M.King Hubbert, Petroleum geologist, geophysicist. · Production begins at base line or zero on the graph. · Production rises to a peak and can never be surpassed or overcome. · Once production peaks, it declines until the resource is depleted. The following graph demonstrates average global production from 1980 to present day, with the value representing 2007 being a three month average to March. For the purpose of monitoring global production, and to provide a visual assessment and confirmation of a global peak oil production plateau time-line as it happens, the graph below will be updated with new data as it becomes available. However, it should be noted that data in all cases is subject to considerable delays, and is only as accurate as the source. In any case, it should prove to be a tool worthy of monitoring over the coming months and years. Any significant decline in global production from this point will become evident in the production monitor below, and would more than likely be indicative of having surpassed peak oil production, however, many events can influence production demand.  Resources.... Average global production data for period 1980 - 2007 United States - Energy Information Administration - Department of Energy Many economic variables can influence production demand, for example, natural disasters can dramatically reduce motor vehicle and general transportation usage which reduces fuel consumption, and any temporary closure of government and economic services as a result of the same, can reduce energy demand by reasonably large percentages. The definitive point to make in reference to the above production graph is that production can only increase to meet demand growth while there is sufficient spare capacity, but once production begins to decline and maintains a downward trend, spare capacity is therefore considered non existent and hence, commencing the period of global economic decline. kjbdsd.com, hydrocarbonuniverse.com, and the hydrocarbon universe web site, remains the intellectual and legal property of KJB DYNAMIC SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENTS - ABN 88996519952 |
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